Chart Pattern Probability Tool
Pick a pattern, set your context, get an educational probability estimate
Pattern
Market
Timeframe
Market regime
Confirmation strength
Volume context
Select your setup and calculate
Educational tool only. Probabilities are rule-based estimates — not backtested signals. Always manage your own risk and confirm setups independently.
Configure two setups independently and compare their probability side by side.
Setup A
Pattern
Market
Timeframe
Regime
Confirmation
Volume
Setup B
Pattern
Market
Timeframe
Regime
Confirmation
Volume
Concepts explained
What is a chart pattern?
A recognizable shape that price forms on a chart, reflecting the battle between buyers and sellers. Patterns help traders anticipate potential future moves — but they are never guaranteed.
Success probability
The estimated chance the pattern completes its expected move (e.g. a bull flag breaking upward). Adjusted for timeframe, market, regime, confirmation, and volume. Not a guarantee — just an educated estimate.
Failure probability
The complement of success (100 minus success %). A 40% failure rate means 4 out of 10 setups like this one historically did not complete as expected. Risk management is always required.
R:R (Risk-to-Reward)
Risk-to-Reward ratio. A 1:2 R:R means you risk 1 unit to potentially gain 2. Even with a 50% success rate, a good R:R keeps you profitable over time. Aim for at least 1:2 on most setups.
Edge score (A–D)
A letter grade summarizing the overall quality of the setup. A = high-conviction (70%+), B = reasonable edge (60–69%), C = marginal setup (50–59%), D = low-quality, avoid unless you have extra confirmation.
Market regime
The current market condition. Trending markets (clean structure, clear direction) favor continuation patterns like flags and triangles. Ranging (choppy) markets produce more fake-outs and reduce reliability significantly.
Confirmation strength
How well the breakout or breakdown is confirmed. Strong confirmation = candle closes beyond the level with volume. Weak = price barely touches the level or has no volume support. Always wait for at least normal confirmation.
Volume context
Volume is the fuel behind price moves. A breakout on above-average or spiking volume is far more reliable than one on low volume. Volume contraction during consolidation followed by expansion on the breakout is the ideal scenario.
Timeframe impact
Higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly) produce cleaner, more reliable patterns because they filter out short-term noise. Lower timeframes (5m, 15m) are noisier and have more false breakouts. The same pattern on Daily is worth more than on 5m.
Breakout speed
How quickly the pattern typically resolves. Fast patterns (flags) break out within a few candles. Slow patterns (Head and Shoulders, Cup and Handle) may take days or weeks. Faster isn't always better — patience pays.
Trader bias warning
A common psychological trap specific to each pattern. For example, traders often enter bull flags before the breakout confirms, leading to getting stopped out on the final shake before the real move. Knowing the bias helps you avoid it.
Important disclaimer
All probabilities are rule-based educational estimates — not live backtested results. No tool can predict the market. Always use stop-losses, proper position sizing, and your own analysis before entering any trade.
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